A Bayesian Model for Prelaunch Sales Forecasting of Recorded Music
نویسندگان
چکیده
Jonathan Lee • Peter Boatwright • Wagner A. Kamakura Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, SPEA/BUS 4041, 801 W. Michigan Street, Indianapolis, Indiana 46202 Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213 Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Box 90120, Durham, North Carolina 27708-0120 [email protected] • [email protected] • [email protected]
منابع مشابه
Bayesian and Conjoint analysis on Forecasting the Home-Networking Market of South Korea in Competitive Environments
In this paper, we develop prelaunch forecasting model reflecting competition structure among various technologies and this model overcomes limitations of the Bass-type diffusion model which relies upon historical sales data. This paper applies our model to the HomeNetworking(H-N) market where there exist various alternative technologies in South Korea. First of all, we develop a Bayesian model ...
متن کاملSales Budget Forecasting and Revision by Adaptive Network Fuzzy Base Inference System and Optimization Methods
The sales proceeds are the most important factors for keeping alive profitable companies. So sales and budget sales are considered as important parameters influencing all other decision variables in an organization. Therefore, poor forecasting can lead to great loses in organization caused by inaccurate and non-comprehensive production and human resource planning. In this research a coherent so...
متن کاملComparison of Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX with Quadratic Loss Function in Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models: Forecasting of Real Price of Oil
In this paper we intend to examine the application of Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX loss function in Dynamic Linear Model using the real price of oil for 106 years of data from 1913 to 2018 concerning the asymmetric problem in filtering and forecasting. We use DLM form of the basic Hoteling Model under Quadratic loss function, Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX trying to address the ...
متن کاملA Bayesian Model for Sales Forecasting at Sun Microsystems
An accurate short-term forecast of product sales is vital for the smooth operation of modern supply chains, especially where the manufacture of complex products is outsourced internationally. As a vendor of enterprise computing products whose business model has long emphasized extensive outsourcing, Sun Microsystems Inc. has a keen interest in the accuracy of its product sales forecasts. Histor...
متن کاملForecasting Product Sales with Dynamic Linear Mixture Models
This paper discusses investigations undertaken at Sun Microsystems, Inc. into practical forecasting applications of the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models described in the seminal work of West and Harrison (1997). Particular emphasis is placed on the use of class II mixture models, which use Bayesian model averaging to help accommodate model uncertainty.
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Management Science
دوره 49 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2003